A Tariffs Playbook for Restaurants: Optimize Inventory, Forecasting & Procurement
With rising tariffs, persistent inflation, and mounting economic uncertainty, restaurant operators are under pressure to control costs without compromising guest experience. But the supply chain shocks of recent years have made one thing clear: Intelligent inventory systems, forecasting engines, and smart procurement tools can help restaurants build resilience, boost margins, and make sharper decisions in real time.
Start With Inventory
“Restaurants must be acutely aware of carrying costs and reduce their inventory purchases to minimize waste and maximize their use,” says Toby W. Malbec, VP of Global Restaurant Technology at Church’s Texas Chicken. “This is best done through tight integration with accurate menus, strong transaction-level detail around sales, and historical modeling.”
Skip Kimpel, President & CEO of Magicgate, notes some key inventory features that operators should be considering: IoT-enabled sensors to track real-time stock levels and conditions (e.g., temperature for perishables); POS integration to link actual sales with inventory depletion; and AI-driven alerts for low inventory, shrinkage, or unusual usage.
“Restaurants also need to review their recipes closely,” Malbec adds. “Look for ingredients that have seen sharp price increases, and consider substitutions that are less volatile—without sacrificing product quality or flavor.”
Face Tariffs Head-On With Demand Forecasting
According to Malbec, a well-configured back-of-house platform can model more precise ordering based on historical data and actual menu movement, helping operators to avoid the common (and costly) impulse to over-order “just to be safe.”
Tom Seeker, CTO of Ziggi’s Coffee, says “Advanced forecasting engines—like Fourth’s AI Forecasting—use sales data, guest counts, and external factors to predict demand with unmatched accuracy. This enables better labor and inventory planning while reducing inefficiencies.”
Kimpel notes that the benefits of demand forecasting include: Less food waste and spoilage; better labor scheduling and food prep alignment; and smarter purchasing that reflects true customer demand. He advises, “Keep an eye on machine learning models that adapt to location-level patterns.”
Shawn P. Walchef, founder of Cali BBQ in San Diego, knows firsthand how AI can transform operations. “Navigating supply chain uncertainty used to feel like a guessing game—especially in BBQ, where timing and prep are everything. Before ClearCOGS, we struggled to get inventory and demand forecasting right,” Walchef says. Now, with ClearCOGS integrated directly into the Toast system, his team is making data-driven decisions that boost margins and reduce stress. “In today’s climate, if you're not using AI to forecast demand and manage costs, you're falling behind.”
Optimize Suppliers & Procurement
Seeker points out that today’s challenges go far beyond local operations. “These challenges demand a proactive approach to mitigate risks and ensure operational continuity.”
One major shift: rethinking global sourcing strategies. “Tariff hikes have disrupted global supply chains, forcing us to explore nearshoring or reshoring options to reduce dependency on volatile markets,” Seeker says.
Seeker also emphasizes the role of predictive analytics in supplier management. “Intelligent supply chain platforms help evaluate supplier performance, identify risks, and streamline procurement cycles—keeping service consistent and costs down.”
Kimpel notes that next-gen procurement platforms use: dynamic pricing comparison across suppliers; automated purchasing based on par levels, lead times, and promos; and AP system integration for seamless invoicing and reconciliation.
Kimpel believes tech tools for inventory management, demand forecasting, and procurement are no longer a “nice-to-have” for restaurants—they’re a competitive differentiator. “For multi-unit operators or independent restaurants, intelligent back-of-house systems improve decision-making, reduce manual labor, and ultimately lead to higher margins and more consistent guest experiences,” he says.
- HT’s Expert Checklist for Navigating Tariffs & Supply Chain Uncertainty
Inventory Management
- Use AI and prescriptive analytics to reduce over-ordering
- Integrate inventory systems with POS and menus for accuracy
- Monitor real-time stock levels and waste with IoT sensors
- Analyze ingredient costs and consider smart substitutions
Demand Forecasting
- Implement AI-powered forecasting tools that adapt to local patterns
- Incorporate external factors (weather, events, holidays) into forecasts
- Align labor and prep schedules with predictive demand models
Supplier & Procurement Optimization
- Compare supplier pricing dynamically to control costs
- Automate purchasing based on par levels, promotions, and lead times
- Integrate procurement with AP systems for smoother invoicing
- Explore nearshoring or reshoring options to reduce volatility